Russia doesn’t say it will increase oil output by 890K bpd from May


Absolute mess of Russia headlines with a translation error

Absolute mess of Russia headlines with a translation error
  • Sees oil inventories falling to 5-year average in 2021
  • Sees demand at pre-crisis level in 2022
  • Oil deficit is around 1-2 mbpd
  • Sees risk non-OPEC+ raises output amid higher oil prices

This was a total mess.

Initial headlines said Russia was raising oil production by 890K bpd in May. That would use up all their spare capacity and essentially be Russia bailing on OPEC+.

The current OPEC+ decision is for Russia to increase production by 130K bpd in April but there’s been nothing about May it sounded like they had pre-announced a further increase here.
However, it was a translation error at a newswire.

Novak actually said production would be 890K bpd in May but that’s from April 2020 — a year earlier when production was heavily curtailed. The initial headlines said it would be from April 2021, which is a huge m/m increase. Essentially, he’s not saying anything new here and now oil has stormed right back.

At least we know what would happen in the oil market if Russia bailed on OPEC+.

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By Jonathan Prop

Jonathan Prop is an independent financial advisor. He has been working in finance for the last 20 years. After retiring early in his 40s, Jonathan decided to help others get to grip with financial markets, particularly his area of expertise - forex!

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